Airline Traffic Statistics Thursday, January 15, 2009 09:10:13 PM
January 15, 2009 DOT reported October enplanements declined -7.1% YoY near the low-end of our forecast range of -5.5% to -6.5% (AirlineSlideShow 011509.ppt).
January 7, 2009 November enplanements declined 13.1% as reported by the ATA representing the worst month in 2008 by nearly 5 percentage points. Based on a review of December traffic statistics released by nine tracking airlines (RPM by Airline), December RPMs declined -4.6% representing an improvement compared to October and November. We anticipate that traffic statistics will decline in the -7 to -9% range given the continued capacity constraints represented by an ASM decline of -6.6% in December '08.
December 11, 2008 DOT reported September enplanements declined -8.4% YoY near the low-end of our forecast range of -7% to -8% and consistent with the statistics provided by the ATA in October '08.
December 4, 2008 Based on a review of November performance statistics released by nine tracking airlines, RPMs declined -10.5% (RPM by Airline) representing a four percentage point decline compared to both September and October. Domestic RPMs declined -12.7% and international declined -4.9%.
November 25, 2008 The ATA reported October enplanements declined 7.1% which was at the mid-point of our forecast range for the month. Based on the historical relationship between DOT and ATA statistics, September DOT enplanements will decline -7% to -8% while October DOT enplanements will decline -5.5% to -6.5%.
November 17, 2008: The DOT reported August enplanements declined -5.1% which was at the low-end of our forecast range of -4.5% to -5.0%. Domestic enplanements declined -6.1% and international improved only +2.1%.
November 7, 2008: For the second consecutive month, international RPMs experienced negative year-over-year growth. On a consolidated basis (including domestic and international RPMs), nine out of ten tracking airlines (excluding Southwest) reported negative RPMs year-over-year change.
October 29, 2008: As reported by the ATA, September enplanement growth declined -8.7% suggesting, as noted earlier, that DOT enplanements will decline in the -5.5% to -6.5% range (for September). All airlines reported by ATA, excluding Hawaiian, experienced negative growth in September. Hawaiian airlines experienced postive enplanements of +2.7% representing a substantial decline against September YTD growth of +11.8% and August of +12.5% (due in part to the shutdown of Aloha).
October 17, 2008: Enplanement growth declined for the fifth consecutive month with significant deterioration in the international segment. The DOT reported July enplanements declined -2.9% with domestic -3.5% and international at only +1.4%. Based on recent trends, we estimate that DOT enplanements will decline in the -4.5% to -5.0% in August, -5.5% to -6.5% in September and -7% to -10% in Q408.
October 8, 2008:
- Nine out of 10 airlines experienced negative RPM growth in September 2008.
- International revenue passenger miles declined for the first time since 2003.
All airlines represented in this review (excluding AirTran) experienced declines in revenue passenger miles for the month of September 2008. Significantly, for the first time since 2003, international revenue passenger miles experienced negative growth at -0.5%.September 23, 2008 ATA reported August enplanements declined 5.9% representing the worst month of change in 2008 (v. 2007) and a 1.9 percentage point decline compared to the prior month (July) at -4.0% (as reported by the ATA). Given the historical relationship between the ATA and DOT enplanement statistics, the DOT will likely report a decline in the 2.5% to 4.5% range.
September 11, 2008 DOT reported June enplanements declined 2.7% representing the second worst month of growth in 2008 (after April). Domestic enplanements declined 3.3% while international enplanements improved 2.4%. DOT/BTS Press Release
September 9, 2008 Based on a review of August performance statistics released by nine tracking airlines, August revenue passenger miles declined 1.4% year-over-year which is consistent with performance since April 2008. Based on historical patterns, August enplanements will decline 2 to 4% year over year. Domestic RPMs declined 4.4% while international RPMs improved 5.5%. SouthWest airlines experienced the largest decline at -5.2% compared to other low cost airlines, specifically JetBlue and AirTran (RPM by Airline). All major airlines represented in this study experienced declines in domestic revenue passenger miles for the month of August (RPM by Airline).
Tracking Airlines: AirTran, JetBlue, SouthWest, American (and American Eagle), Continental, Delta, NorthWest, United, US Airways.
ATA Airlines: Alaska, Aloha, American, CO Micronesia, Continental, Delta, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Midwest, Northwest, Southwest, United, US Airways.